My current task is to create a Content Forecast for the two coming years (2023-2024) so we can have a rough estimate of how many user questions, discussion, and comments we can expect (inside and outside of ideation) in order to have an estimate of how much content will need to be moderated
How would you approach this?
I came up with an idea but maybe somebody has got a better technique :)
First off: I already have a member forecast & a session forecast for the next to years. This will be an important factor for the forecast calculations.
Basically I have a list of all numbers for the past year with which I calculate a ratio
(simplified version here)
Then I calculate a monthly ratio, e.g. (topics p. session) and (topics p. member) of each of the above content types.
→ e.g. for January 0.01 questions p. session and 0.02 questions p. member
Then I multiply those ratios by the forecasted # of members or sessions and then use an average of that number.
So for example, the formula for the Forecasted # of Questions for July 2023 (click on “learn more”)
- A: Forecast of Sessions in July 2023
- B: Average Ratio of Questions / Session as calculated above
- C: Forecast of Members in July 2023
- B: Average Ratio of Questions / Members as calculated above
Optional: I am considering to add a “maturity factor” or “growth factor” as the variable “E” in the formula below
So I can use that to make a more accurate model based on how much I think that the content will grow proportionally to the community growth. The factor will probably be lower than 1 (e.g. 0.8) as the community reaches maturity and content saturation we cannot expect the ratio to stay constant in the coming years)
I do that for each content type that I want to forecast, by just copy-pasting the formula.
Any other ideas?